Full updated Seed List tomorrow! Bubble Stats will also be updated tomorrow! A lot of good data to sift through, be sure
to check back for that. Last Four In and
First Four Out, along with #1 Seed projections updated in this post! In the meantime, what a day! 50+ games.
Bubble bursting, seed changing. Let’s
get to it.
No conference tournament finals tonight. So we’ll start with
bubble scores.
Bubble Watch
Louisville was blown out by Virginia. The Cavaliers continue to cement themselves
as a top seed while the Cardinals are in trouble I think. They are 0-11 against
the RPI top 50. NIT seems likely, they
will drop out of my last four in today.
Marquette was also blown out, by another top seed in
Villanova. Steve Wojciechowski’s squad is
right on the line. They have 8 Top-100
wins, but not a great NCSOS, and a loss to DePaul. The Golden Eagles will be sweating until
Selection Sunday.
Notre Dame’s run for an at-large bid has come to an end. The Fighting Irish did not get enough done,
with or without Colson, and I don’t think they will hear their name called on
Sunday.
Oklahoma St. loses to perennial powerhouse Kansas, hurting
their chances for an at-large bid, but didn’t end them. The Cowboys have a slew of top-100 wins
including 2 against Kansas. On the downside
they have an RPI of 85, and did nothing in the non-conference. I’ve got them last team in right now.
Texas lost to Texas Tech for the 2nd time this
season, which while nothing to be ashamed about in and of itself, was the
Longhorns' 14th loss. Despite the high loss total, I think they have
enough quality wins to be in the NCAA bracket this Sunday.
Kansas St. beat Jamie Dixon and the TCU Horned Frogs to keep
themselves in the at-large conversation.
I think another loss would have really put the Wildcats on the bubble,
especially with the horrible NCSOS.
K-State should be dancing.
Alabama is the toughest team to call IMO. They will likely have 15 losses, assuming they don’t win the SEC tournament.
But they also have 12 Top-100 wins, the most of any bubble team. Seven of those are against the top 50, all
with a SOS of 6. But they also have
those 15 likely losses, and 3 of those are sub-100 defeats. The Crimson Tide should win another game or
two to feel a little safer.
Providence is another team that is trending in the right direction,
but is by no means a lock. The Friars
won a big one today, but they have three sub-170 losses and some pretty
mediocre computer metrics. I would keep
winning if I were Providence.
UCLA won in the Pac-12 quarterfinal matchup against Stanford
to keep themselves trending toward a bid.
Again, keep winning. The Bruins
have a bubbly resume, but I think they'll be in.
USC beat Oregon St. for their 22nd win of the
season. The Trojans have a deceiving record. They are good, but they are still not a lock
IMO. Their best wins are MTSU and New
Mexico St. on neutral floors, and a win @Utah.
They have a loss to Princeton, who is #224 in the RPI. I think they are in, but it is closer than
their record would indicate.
Utah lost a close game to Oregon to largely end their tournament hopes.
Baylor dropped their game to West Virginia in the Big 12
quarters. I think that’s it for the Bears, 18-14 won’t
get it done.
Bid Stealer?
MTSU lost tonight, leaving some people questioning if that
meant a bid would be stolen by the eventual winner of the Conference USA tournament. I am not one of those people. MTSU simply does not have the wins to backup an
at-large NCAA bid. It is NIT for the
Blue Raiders.
#1 Seed Race
Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas, and Duke all won today,
keeping themselves in the push for a #1 seed.
Look ahead to Friday
Another packed day of games. Full schedule available Here. Remember! Full updated Seed List tomorrow! Bubble Stats will also be updated tomorrow! A lot of good data to sift through, be sure
to check back for that!
Updated Projections
Last Four In:
Alabama, Syracuse, Arizona St, Oklahoma St.
First Four Out: Marquette,
Louisville, St Mary’s, Baylor
Comment below with your thoughts and Follow me on Twitter @Tcw8848
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