Thursday, March 8, 2018

March 8th Recap

 Full updated Seed List tomorrow!  Bubble Stats will also be updated tomorrow!  A lot of good data to sift through, be sure to check back for that.  Last Four In and First Four Out, along with #1 Seed projections updated in this post!  In the meantime, what a day!  50+ games.  Bubble bursting, seed changing.  Let’s get to it.

No conference tournament finals tonight. So we’ll start with bubble scores.

Bubble Watch

Louisville was blown out by Virginia.  The Cavaliers continue to cement themselves as a top seed while the Cardinals are in trouble I think. They are 0-11 against the RPI top 50.  NIT seems likely, they will drop out of my last four in today.

Marquette was also blown out, by another top seed in Villanova. Steve Wojciechowski’s squad is right on the line.  They have 8 Top-100 wins, but not a great NCSOS, and a loss to DePaul.  The Golden Eagles will be sweating until Selection Sunday.

Notre Dame’s run for an at-large bid has come to an end.  The Fighting Irish did not get enough done, with or without Colson, and I don’t think they will hear their name called on Sunday.

Oklahoma St. loses to perennial powerhouse Kansas, hurting their chances for an at-large bid, but didn’t end them.  The Cowboys have a slew of top-100 wins including 2 against Kansas.  On the downside they have an RPI of 85, and did nothing in the non-conference.  I’ve got them last team in right now.

Texas lost to Texas Tech for the 2nd time this season, which while nothing to be ashamed about in and of itself, was the Longhorns' 14th loss. Despite the high loss total, I think they have enough quality wins to be in the NCAA bracket this Sunday.

Kansas St. beat Jamie Dixon and the TCU Horned Frogs to keep themselves in the at-large conversation.  I think another loss would have really put the Wildcats on the bubble, especially with the horrible NCSOS.  K-State should be dancing.

Alabama is the toughest team to call IMO.  They will likely have 15 losses, assuming they don’t win the SEC tournament.  But they also have 12 Top-100 wins, the most of any bubble team.  Seven of those are against the top 50, all with a SOS of 6.  But they also have those 15 likely losses, and 3 of those are sub-100 defeats.  The Crimson Tide should win another game or two to feel a little safer.

Providence is another team that is trending in the right direction, but is by no means a lock.  The Friars won a big one today, but they have three sub-170 losses and some pretty mediocre computer metrics.  I would keep winning if I were Providence.

UCLA won in the Pac-12 quarterfinal matchup against Stanford to keep themselves trending toward a bid.  Again, keep winning.  The Bruins have a bubbly resume, but I think they'll be in.

USC beat Oregon St. for their 22nd win of the season.  The Trojans have a deceiving record.  They are good, but they are still not a lock IMO.  Their best wins are MTSU and New Mexico St. on neutral floors, and a win @Utah.  They have a loss to Princeton, who is #224 in the RPI.  I think they are in, but it is closer than their record would indicate.

Utah lost a close game to Oregon to largely end their tournament hopes.

Baylor dropped their game to West Virginia in the Big 12 quarters.  I think that’s it for the Bears, 18-14 won’t get it done.

Bid Stealer?

MTSU lost tonight, leaving some people questioning if that meant a bid would be stolen by the eventual winner of the Conference USA tournament.  I am not one of those people.  MTSU simply does not have the wins to backup an at-large NCAA bid.  It is NIT for the Blue Raiders.

#1 Seed Race

Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas, and Duke all won today, keeping themselves in the push for a #1 seed.

Look ahead to Friday

Another packed day of games.  Full schedule available Here.  Remember!  Full updated Seed List tomorrow!  Bubble Stats will also be updated tomorrow!  A lot of good data to sift through, be sure to check back for that!

Updated Projections

Last Four In: Alabama, Syracuse, Arizona St, Oklahoma St.

First Four Out: Marquette, Louisville, St Mary’s, Baylor

Comment below with your thoughts and Follow me on Twitter @Tcw8848 

No comments:

Post a Comment